SA new-vehicle sales in July 2024: new highs for 3 brands
South Africa’s new-vehicle market recorded a marginal year-on-year increase in sales in July 2024. Here’s your market overview, including Mzansi’s most popular brands…
Finally, some good news. In July 2024, new-vehicle sales in South Africa registered a 1.5% increase year on year to finish on 44 229 units. Though this gain – which is only the 2nd instance of year-on-year growth so far this year – is certainly marginal, Naamsa says it “could be the turning point for an improved 2nd half” of 2024.
Indeed, as many as 3 brands inside the top 10 – the Volkswagen Group, Ford and Hyundai – recorded new highs for the year. In addition, July’s performance represented a 10.4% improvement over June 2024’s effort.
Export sales, however, plummeted 33.2% to 25 461 units last month, compared with the lofty figure achieved in July 2023, with Naamsa blaming “adverse weather conditions during the month as well as declining exports to Europe, the domestic automotive industry’s top export region”.
Out of the total reported industry sales in July, Naamsa estimated that 81.1% represented registrations via the dealer channel, while a hefty 13.5% were sales to the vehicle-rental industry, 2.9% to government and 2.5% to industry corporate fleets.
Interestingly, the figures suggest it was the new passenger-vehicle market that drove overall growth in July 2024, with this segment improving 6.8% year on year to 29 934 units. Car-rental sales accounted for a considerable 17.1% of that figure, with Naamsa pointing out that “seasonal sales to the rental industry contributed to the higher sales” last month.
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Meanwhile, the light-commercial vehicle segment slid 8.8% year on year to 11 554 units, perhaps thanks in part to the disappearance of the Nissan NP200 (a since-discontinued half-tonne bakkie that contributed more than 1 000 units in the same month last year).
Lebo Gaoaketse, Head of Marketing and Communication at WesBank, said the market’s growth came off the back of “marginally improving economic conditions, returning consumer and business confidence in the wake of 4 months of consistent electricity supply, and the hope of some budget relief for consumers during the 2nd half”. He added that the market’s performance in July “should be seen in 2 important contexts”.
“Firstly, July 2023 was practically the last month the South African car market was in positive growth territory, making this July’s performance relatively stronger. Secondly, July sales were a substantial 4 157 [units] higher than June, which is significantly more than the 657-unit growth year-on-year,” explained Gaoaketse.
Brandon Cohen, National Chairperson of the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), welcomed the “positive shift in monthly retail new-vehicle sales” in July, adding that “although the increase was modest”, the overall tally of 44 229 units was “encouraging”.
“When compared to June 2024 sales, July witnessed an overall increase of 4 356 vehicles, with passenger vehicles accounting for 3 171 units. Year to date, we remain 6.3% behind the figures for 2023, but we are hopeful that the July sales mark the beginning of growth in the 2nd half of the year,” Cohan said, before conceding “we have significant ground to cover before the year’s end”.
New-vehicle sales summary for July 2024
- Aggregate new-vehicle sales of 44 229 units increased by 1.5% (657 units) compared to July 2023.
- New passenger-vehicle sales of 29 934 units increased by 6.8% (1 894 units) compared to July 2023.
- New light-commercial vehicle sales of 11 554 units decreased by 8.8% (1 112 units) compared to July 2023.
- Export sales of 25 461 units decreased by 33.2% (12 671 units) compared to July 2023.
10 best-selling automakers in SA in July 2024
After 3 straight months of 4-figure totals, Toyota returned to 5 figures in July 2024 with a final tally of 11 131 units – a month-on-month increase of 14.2% – and thus unsurprisingly retained 1st place. The Volkswagen Group (6 178 units), meanwhile, enjoyed its best sales month of the year so far, taking a comfortable 2nd position.
Suzuki (4 816 units) improved somewhat over its June showing but again had to settle for the final spot on the podium. Like the VW Group, 4th-placed Ford (2 901 units) put in its best effort of 2024 so far, as did Hyundai (2 699 units) in 5th. Meanwhile, Isuzu sales dipped slightly to 2 072 units in July, though the Japanese firm still retain 6th position ahead of Nissan (1 884 units) in 7th.
Chery (1 701 units) held steady in 8th place, again finishing ahead of fellow Chinese automaker GWM (1 562 units) in 9th. Finally, Renault returned to the table to snaffle 10th spot, meaning the BMW Group’s stint back in the top 10 was limited to a single month.
Kia (1 068 units) was bubbling under in 11th place, while Indian automaker Mahindra (1 007 units) also managed to crack 4 figures to finish 12th. That meant the BMW Group (994 units) fell 3 places to 13th, though still finished ahead of Stellantis (573 units) and Mercedes-Benz (with a Naamsa-estimated 555 units).
1. Toyota – 11 131 units
2. Volkswagen Group – 6 178 units
3. Suzuki – 4 816 units
4. Ford – 2 901 units
5. Hyundai – 2 699 units
6. Isuzu – 2 072 units
7. Nissan – 1 884 units
8. Chery – 1 701 units
9. GWM – 1 562 units
10. Renault – 1 210 units
Sales outlook in South Africa for rest of 2024
So, where to from here? Well, Naamsa appears positive despite 2024’s aggregate new-vehicle sales sitting 6.3% behind the corresponding year-to-date period last year (and despite “various challenges and elements of economic uncertainty”).
“Encouraging aspects for growth and increased consumer spending for the balance of the year include 4 consecutive months of no load-shedding, a stronger rand exchange rate and potentially up to 2 interest-rate cuts before year-end,” points out Naamsa, adding that automotive brands “continue to launch new products into the marketplace”.
Meanwhile, WesBank’s Gaoaketse says South African motorists “continue to remain under immense budget pressures” amid interest rates at a 15-year high, suggesting there “isn’t much relief expected soon”.
“Whilst soft economic growth and inflation data indicate the real possibility now for interest-rate cuts, with only 2 opportunities in September and November, consumers shouldn’t expect big savings to become a reality this year,” says Gaoaketse.
However, he adds that “the return of some confidence into the market is reflected in demand as measured by WesBank’s rate of applications,” adding that “hopefully, this continues to translate into more optimism for the 2nd half”.
Finally, NADA’s Cohen remains upbeat, though points out that while there is a “clear desire for vehicles, affordability remains a significant barrier”.
“Consumers are beginning to visit dealerships more frequently. Confidence in the country and overall sentiment are improving, leading people to gradually return to car purchases. However, high interest rates and the unsustainably high cost of living continue to impact vehicle-finance accessibility.
“There are positive indications that interest rates may be reduced by 25 to 50 basis points before the year ends, and some consumers are already factoring this potential change into their purchasing decisions,” Cohen concludes.
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