How Toyota Fortuner will lose its title as SA’s best-selling SUV
The Toyota Fortuner has long been South Africa’s best-selling SUV, but it will lose that title in 2022. Here’s a look at the numbers and what’s led to the Fortuner’s slide down the sales charts…
Once the final figures have been tallied up, 2022 will be remembered as an utterly fascinating one for South Africa’s automotive industry. Not only have we witnessed the locally built Volkswagen Polo hatchback tumble down the sales charts, but the country will have crowned a new best-selling SUV by the time December comes to a close.
Yes, after outselling every other high-riding passenger car in South Africa’s new-vehicle market – including a seemingly ever-growing crop of far smaller and significantly more affordable crossovers – for the past 5 years, the mighty Toyota Fortuner will be forced to relinquish its crown for 2022.
The Hilux-based adventure SUV’s dominance of the local SUV space stretches all the way back to the original’s launch in 2006. In the 16 years since, the Prospecton-built 7-seater has hardly put a foot wrong, missing out on the top spot very rarely and, even then, only by the most minuscule of margins.
This year is different, though. The way the sales figures are tracking with just a month to go, the Fortuner won’t be 2nd, 3rd or even 4th on the list of South Africa’s most popular SUVs and crossovers. By our estimation, the 3-row ladder-frame-based family vehicle could instead find itself down in 5th place on the SUV list and well outside the top 20 in the overall passenger and light-commercial vehicle standings. So, what are the reasons for the decline in Fortuner sales?
A closer look at Fortuner sales since 2016
The 2nd-generation Fortuner debuted in South Africa in March 2016.
In order to properly scrutinise 2022’s figures and put them in context, we should first look back a little further. Let’s start with 2016, the last time the 7-seater Toyota wasn’t SA’s top-selling SUV and, incidentally, it was the year in which the 2nd-generation model debuted locally. The Japanese firm sold 11 060 new units of the Fortuner in 2016, enough to place it 7th on the table of SA’s best-selling vehicles. For the record, the Ford EcoSport pipped it to the SUV post on that occasion.
In 2017, 13 629 units were sold locally (translating to a heady monthly average of 1 136 units), which allowed the Fortuner to reclaim the title. The following year saw a slight decline to (an admittedly still impressive) 13 099 sales, before the number fell to 11 644 units in 2019 and further still to 9 635 units in 2020 (the latter a year of lockdown-related struggles for the broader industry, as well as the introduction of the facelifted model). The Fortuner’s tally of 9 236 units in 2021 was just enough to keep it ahead of the Urban Cruiser as the top-selling SUV (new vehicles) in the Republic that year.
Despite experiencing consecutive year-on-year drops in sales from 2017 (roughly mirroring the performance of South Africa’s overall new-vehicle market, it must be said), the Fortuner placed inside the overall top 10 of SA’s best-selling vehicles in every 1 of these 6 reporting periods. Even in tough times, it remained a firm favourite with local buyers.
Examining the Fortuner’s sales figures in 2022 thus far
Despite its sales dip, the Fortuner is still easily SA’s most popular ladder-frame SUV.
So, how has 2022 been different? Well, the Fortuner no longer makes regular appearances on the monthly list of South Africa’s 10 best-selling vehicles. In fact, over the first 11 months of the year, the SUV cracked the top 10 just once and breached the 4-figure mark only twice. As things stand, its year-to-date total is 7 100 units, translating to a monthly average of 645 units.
While that’s significantly down on its usual pace and quite some way behind a number of unibody crossovers (which we’ll touch on soon), we should point out even this uncharacteristically muted performance – closely linked to a lengthy production stoppage we’ll outline below – puts the Fortuner streets ahead of every other body-on-frame model on the market.
Consider, for example, the fact Ford has registered just 1 132 new units of the Everest – a figure admittedly contracted by the new model’s more upmarket (read: expensive) positioning, plus a distinct lack of stock – in 2022 thus far. Though the Mitsubishi Pajero Sport’s effort of 887 units is an improvement over previous years, it’s still a mere 12% of the Fortuner’s tally. The Isuzu MU-X is sitting at 804 units, while Nissan didn’t even bother bringing more than a handful of Terra units to local shores. One thing’s for sure: the Fortuner still dominates its specific segment.
The impact of April 2022’s devastating floods in KZN
Production at Prospecton was halted for 3 months from mid-April.
So, what explains the Fortuner’s latest year-on-year sales regression? Well, the most obvious reason relates to the deadly floods that hit KwaZulu-Natal in mid-April. Toyota’s Prospecton facility sustained major damage when a towering wall of water and silt came thundering down the river adjacent to the plant (the sluice gates at the overflowing Shongweni Dam had been opened abruptly).
Production of the Hilux, Hi-Ace Ses’fikile, Corolla Cross, Corolla Quest and Fortuner was promptly halted, as the firm set to work first assessing the substantial damage, then cleaning the fine silt from the numerous pieces of electronic and mechanical equipment in the plant’s various production areas.
After the majority of the facility’s operational parts had been reconditioned or replaced in a time-consuming and tremendously costly process, vehicles started rolling off the assembly line again only towards the end of July. Still, it took a few more months for the plant to build back up to its full production capacity.
Where would the Fortuner be if the floods didn’t happen?
Local sales of the Fortuner are almost back to pre-flood levels.
The sales figures starkly illustrate the impact of this disaster, with the Fortuner’s two best months of the year – 1 101 units in February and 1 082 units in March – coming immediately prior to the floods. Registrations fell to 618 in April, before the SUV had to endure 3 consecutive sub-200-unit months. Sales climbed back into the 600s in August and September, before hitting 847 units in October and 937 units in November; not quite back at pre-flood levels, but very nearly.
Though little more than a speculative exercise that doesn’t account for a multitude of other variables, we can form a general idea of where the Fortuner might have been had the floods never happened. If we apply the locally produced SUV’s monthly average for the first quarter (963 units) to the rest of the year up until the end of November, we come to a healthy hypothetical figure of 11 556 units.
More affordable imported unibody crossovers take hold
Despite an uncertain future, the Urban Cruiser is poised to be SA’s top-selling SUV in 2022.
While the floods undoubtedly played the most telling role in the Fortuner’s fall from the top of the SUV sales charts, there was another factor at play. Yes, the popularity of imported (unibody) small crossovers in South Africa has increased markedly in 2022 – in fact, sales of compact family cars have easily eclipsed those of 2021.
Indeed, even if the Fortuner had notched up a theoretical 11 556 units year to date, it would still be a sizeable 4 491 units off the pace set by the Toyota Urban Cruiser (16 047). While the Indian-built, Suzuki-based model’s local future appears uncertain at present, it’s likely to be South Africa’s top-selling SUV once 2022 has come to a close.
At the time of writing, the Spanish-built Volkswagen T-Cross (9 695 units) and Chinese-produced Haval Jolion (8 337 units) were some way ahead of the Fortuner. The Suzuki Vitara Brezza (7 005 units), Hyundai Venue (6 713) and even the long-in-the-tooth Ford EcoSport (6 510 units), meanwhile, weren’t far behind. The Chery Tiggo 4 Pro may well also have been close, though we don’t know for sure as the Chinese brand began reporting sales data to Naamsa only in July.
Can the typical new-car buyer afford a Fortuner today?
These days, a top-spec Fortuner will cost you close to R900 000.
Unsurprisingly, the rise in popularity of these relatively inexpensive unibody models coincides with the plummeting purchasing power of the average South African new-car buyer. As such, the Fortuner line-up, which starts at R623 200 and summits at R870 900, is quite simply out of the reach of the kind of buyers who purchased the 1st-generation model back in 2006.
What’s more, Fortuner pricing is today around 40% higher than it was at the current-generation model’s local launch in March 2016 (though this phenomenon is certainly not specific to the Toyota brand). That said, in what has been a year of seemingly relentless hikes across the industry, the Fortuner’s list price has increased only around 4% since the range gained a specification update at the end of 2021.
As an aside, there remains a significant overlap with RAV4 pricing, which currently runs from R645 600 to R770 000, with that top figure set to increase by some margin if Toyota opts to bring in the PHEV version of the world’s best-selling vehicle. Meanwhile, the gulf between a top-spec Fortuner and a base Land Cruiser Prado is a considerable R187 000.
A fresh sales threat from within the very same factory
Despite the production stoppage, the Corolla Cross looks set to end 2022 just behind the Urban Cruiser.
By virtue of shrewd positioning and Toyota’s clever leveraging of a celebrated nameplate, the Corolla Cross has sold up an absolute storm in South Africa since its launch just over a year ago. In fact, despite production of this model also grinding to a halt at the Prospecton facility – likewise resulting in 3 consecutive months of sales below 200 units – the Corolla Cross is poised to finish 2022 a whisker behind the Urban Cruiser as the country’s 2nd most popular SUV.
This model’s strongest showing in the first 11 months of the year came in March with 2 384 registrations, but it has recovered to 2 014 units in October and 2 109 units in November. As a result, the Corolla Cross (14 021 units) finds itself a mere 2 026 units behind the Urban Cruiser, with a month of 2022 to go.
Of course, like each of the unibody models mentioned above, the Corolla Cross is by no means a direct rival to the ladder-frame Fortuner, which offers more in the way of practicality, versatility and off-road ability. Still, despite the buyer profiles of these two Toyota models being fairly dissimilar, it isn’t inconceivable consumers who would perhaps have stretched to a base Fortuner a few short years ago might now find themselves in the market for a Corolla Cross instead.
As mentioned above, the value of the average local shopper’s funds isn’t what it once was.
Can the Fortuner reclaim its SUV crown in 2023?
The Fortuner is widely expected to move into a new, 3rd generation in 2023.
Barring any regional natural disasters or fresh global pandemics, the Fortuner should comfortably surpass its 2022 sales tally next year. However, the locally built SUV will have a tough time pushing ahead of SA’s top-selling (more affordable) small crossovers – including 1 or 2 from within its own family – that are playing to an increasingly broad audience. Times are becoming tougher still, which will surely lead to yet more consumers “buying down”.
However, the Fortuner’s dominance in the bakkie-based SUV sphere is by no means under threat, as the new Everest will be anything but a volume driver for Ford. Indeed, the Dearborn-based firm insists it’s no longer targeting the Fortuner and is instead pitting its latest Everest against the Prado (as reflected in the lofty pricing of the Blue Oval’s adventure SUV).
Where to from here for the Fortuner? Well, a 3rd-generation model is rumoured for reveal in 2023 (yes, before the closely related Hilux), with reports suggesting it will switch to a version of the TNGA-F platform already employed by the likes of the Land Cruiser 300 and Lexus LX. Considering the Aichi-based manufacturer’s electrification strategy, it seems likely the Fortuner will gain some form of hybrid assistance, perhaps even applied to the existing 2.8-litre turbodiesel mill. Of course, what sort of impact such a move would have on pricing – and, ultimately, sales – remains to be seen.
While the Fortuner’s slide down the SUV sales charts in 2022 will no doubt sting, the Japanese firm’s local subsidiary will take solace in the fact the 2 vehicles at the very summit of the list – the Urban Cruiser and Corolla Cross – both wear the Toyota badge. It will also certainly help that the automaker will again be South Africa’s best-selling brand by some distance, for an astonishing 43rd year on the trot… and during a particularly trying period.
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