Manual vs auto sales: SA reaches tipping point!
The manual gearbox has long dominated South Africa’s light-vehicle segment, but the latest figures show that’s no longer the case. Yes, a tipping point has been reached, with automatics now outselling manuals in Mzansi…
In South Africa, the humble manual gearbox has long governed sales in the new-vehicle market, with automatic transmissions having to settle for a distant 2nd place. But that ratio (if you’ll excuse the pun) has been shifting (sorry, more wordplay) over the past few years – and has now been reversed (that’s the last one, we promise).
Yes, rather fascinatingly, the split has just tipped in favour of the auto. Based on the latest sales figures, we can confirm the automatic transmission has crept ahead of the manual cog-swapper in the local market. That’s right, autos are now officially outselling manuals in Mzansi.
How do we know? Well, we were curious about the sales split so reached out to our studious friends over at Lightstone Auto, who graciously supplied us with what turned out to be an exceptionally interesting dataset. Bear in mind we asked for the figures to be restricted to light-vehicle sales – so, all passenger cars, including SUVs, and light-commercial vehicles (LCV) – thus excluding medium-, heavy- and extra-heavy commercial vehicles (such as trucks) as well as large buses from the equation.
In addition, note “automatic transmission” here covers all types of self-shifting gearboxes, including the traditional torque converter, the dual-clutch transmission (DCT), the continuously variable transmission (CVT) and even the automated manual transmission (AMT). So, any light vehicle with 2 rather than 3 pedals, then.
Sales split by transmission in SA since 2013
To provide a clear picture of exactly how buyer patterns have changed over time, we asked Lightstone Auto for figures going back an entire decade. As you can see in our illustration below, the automatic transmission’s rise has been slow but incredibly steady, with the 2023 year-to-date (up to the end of September) split finally seeing the manual ‘box dipping below 50% for the 1st time.
Back in 2013, the manual gearbox accounted for a whopping 77% of all new light-vehicle sales in South Africa – so, not even 1 in 4 models sold was an auto – before losing a single percentage point the following year. From 2015 to 2018, the automatic transmission improved its share of the market by a considerable 10% (moving neatly from 26% to 36%), and increased it further to 39% in 2019.
In 2020 – which the local automotive industry will remember as a year defined by the lowest sales total in around 2 decades, courtesy of a certain global pandemic – the auto gearbox breached the 40% barrier, achieving a 43:57 split with 3-pedal models. It added 2 more percentage points in 2021 and a further 3 in 2022 (when the scale was teetering at 48:52), before finally reaching a turning point over the opening 9 months of 2023. So far this year (up to the end of September), 51% of light vehicles sold in SA were fitted with an automatic cog-swapper. Based on what looks like a clear trajectory, the auto seems likely to remain ahead in 2023 overall.
Why has the auto overtaken the manual ‘box in SA?
So, why has the automatic gearbox moved into pole position in South Africa? Well, there are a number of plausible theories, each in spite of the fact derivatives with a self-shifting transmission tend to attract a price premium over the equivalent manual variant. For instance, there are simply more auto options on the market today than in years gone by.
In line with global trends, this phenomenon has been partly driven by vastly improved gearbox designs and indeed by manufacturers striving to meet ever-stricter emissions regulations in certain parts of the world (many modern autos are more efficient than manuals, after all). Even several semi-autonomous driving functions are far simpler to implement on auto-equipped cars. As an example, the manual version of the current-gen Subaru WRX does without the Japanese firm’s EyeSight 4.0 Driver Assistance System, which is fitted as standard on the CVT-equipped derivative.
Of course, there’s also the convenience factor, which has grown increasingly relevant as local roads have become more and more congested; even staunch fans of the manual gearbox will admit it’s no fun working a clutch pedal in multiple-hour traffic jams. The rise of the dual-clutch transmission, too, has surely played a role here, as has the penetration of the (admittedly clunky) automated manual gearbox in the local budget-car segment.
How the market for autos has changed: a few examples
To show how transmission options provided to SA buyers have changed over time, let’s look at the make-up of 3 traditionally popular model ranges at various points – in 2014, 2019 and today – over the past decade or so. In 2014, just 12% of derivatives in the local Volkswagen Polo hatchback line-up comprised automatic variants, a percentage that climbed to 44% in 2019 and 60% in 2023. Over the same period, auto derivatives in the Toyota Hilux range moved from 24% to 41% and finally settled on 44%. The change is even more stark in the BMW 3 Series portfolio, with respective figures of 62%, 100% and 100%.
Though the Bavarian automaker does still offer a manual gearbox in Mzansi – though only in the G87-generation M2, which curiously costs R9 714 more in stick-shift guise than in 8-speed auto form – most other brands with a premium bent have long since ditched the “row-it-yourself” transmission. In South Africa, such marques include Alfa Romeo, Audi, Jaguar, Land Rover, Lexus, Maserati, Jeep, Mercedes-Benz, Mini and Volvo.
In these spaces – that is, outside of the budget and LCV segments – the manual gearbox is thus the preserve of a select few high-performance cars. Though, with modern automatic transmissions offering faster shift times and added efficiency, even these 3-pedal sports cars are dying out (Porsche SA, however, appears to be an exception, as it still offers as many as 10 variants with 3 pedals).
Rise of electrification to accelerate auto dominance
So, will the manual cog-swapper continue its slip down the sales charts? Well, it’s worth keeping in mind the auto gearbox has another distinct advantage: the global market’s transition towards electrification. You see, fully electric vehicles (EVs) are currently available exclusively in auto guise, often with just a single gear (though Toyota is working on a manual ‘box for EVs). This will only further amplify the shift.
It’s a similar case with traditional hybrids as well as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which are currently also offered only in automatic form in South Africa. In addition, we couldn’t find a single example of a manual-equipped mild-hybrid vehicle on Mzansi’s new-car market (though this configuration does exist in some other countries).
Of course, the local market’s entrenched price sensitivity – and indeed the budget segment’s considerable share of total industry sales – means the manual gearbox will surely be around in South Africa for many more years to come. But there’s little doubt its stake will continue to drop, with the local market having now officially reached a tipping point.
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