ICE vs EV: Total 5-year cost of ownership in SA
April’s record-breaking fuel hike seeing 95 unleaded jump to more than R23/litre has turned ICE vehicle ownership into a budget crisis. But can an EV actually bridge the upfront price gap through running costs alone? We crunch the 5-year numbers on SA’s favourite petrol-powered B-segment hatch against its closest electric challenger. It’s ICE vs EV…
Although Cars.co.za is a car site, right now we wouldn’t blame you for shopping for a bicycle, hiking shoes, or considering public transport. With April’s fuel price increase set to vaporise wallets and antagonise motorists, it’s only logical to ask whether an EV would be cheaper to run in the long run. It’s the battle of ICE vs EV…
And with good reason. In 2021, using inland fuel prices, you’d have paid an average of R17.40 for a litre of petrol. Thanks to the Middle East conflict, inland today it’s over R23/litre. Now, there’s much to dislike about Nersa’s repeated inability to keep Eskom’s tentacles out of the SA public’s piggybanks, but in truth, electricity price increases have been far steadier than fuel, if still way above consumer inflation. Five years ago, residential rates averaged at about R2.10/kWh, compared to roughly R3.40/kWh in 2026.
With that in mind, if you’d bought a Volkswagen Polo 1.0 TSI 5 years ago and your neighbour an electric BYD Dolphin Standard,who’d have the most change left by each month-end in 2026? And what if you went completely bargain basement with the BYD Dolphin Surf, even if it’s more compact in dimensions and modest in aspirations?
As the Polo’s closest-sized electric competitors, neither BYD was yet available for sale in 2021. To enable a real-world 5-year comparison, combining current and historical data, we’ve had to simulate its price against the prevailing market of that period.
VW Polo vs BYD Dolphin: Does the fuel saving bridge the R125k gap?
Owing to fewer number of moving parts and common sense dictating that an EV’s running costs will always be less than that of a conventional internal combustion-powered (ICE) car, historically the latter’s perceived benefit would often be diminished by its disproportionate selling price. Once that discrepancy is cleared by using near-equivalent pricing, the benefit is much clearer.
| Metric | 2021 VW Polo 1.0 TSI Life DSG | 2021 BYD Dolphin (Standard) | 2021 BYD Dolphin Surf (Comfort) |
| Launch price (2021) | R370 000 | R495 000 | R339 900 |
| Initial price gap | R125 000 | -R30 100 | |
| Total energy cost (5 years) | R135 100 | R34 875 | R30 600 |
| Energy cost per km | R1.50/km | R0.39/km | R0.34/km |
| Maintenance cost per km | R0.34/km | R0.13/km | R0.13/km |
| Total running cost per km | R1.84/km | R0.52/km | R0.47/km |
| Total 5-year running cost | R165 600 | R46 875 | R42 300 |
| Operating saving | R116 825 | R123 300 |
The 90 000km reality: Why 2026 petrol prices make EVs inevitable
At a weighted 5-year average of R21.80/L, the Polo owner spends nearly R100 000 more on energy than the EV owner over the same distance. Maintenance, however, is where the true hidden costs lurk.
The real savings start happening only from 90 000 km onwards. From 45 000 km onwards, all services carried out on a Polo are out-of-pocket. After 90 000 km, the car would have undergone its second owner-financed major service (the previous one was at 60 000 km); comprising pricey items such as DSG gearbox flushes, belts, spark plug replacements, and at least one set of new brake pads.
Because the BYD’s primary retardation originates by means of electric resistance, even at 90 000 km, its brakes will still be in good shape. In both cases, the tyres would have also been replaced. Rubber replacement is the only area where an EV will forever lag behind an ICE rival. The BYD’s high mass and instant torque will see it chewing through tyres faster, so by 90 000 km, you might already be nearing your 3rd set of tyres.
That said, owing to its comprehensive maintenance plan, the latter will still only be the only expected extra for the Dolphin. At 1 000 km, the Polo is still the cheaper car. By 45 000 km, it’s a tie with the Dolphin, except you are now paying R0.34 maintenance tax per km thanks to its lapsed service plan versus R0.13 per km for the Dolphin – essentially, just the tyres. So, by 90 000 km, the latter has clawed back its R125k premium through accumulated energy and maintenance savings.
From R17 to R23.36 per litre: How 5 years of fuel hikes broke the ICE advantage
By now, you may be thinking that the petrol Polo is a lost cause, and certainly beyond 5 years of ownership, its running costs will progressively exceed those of the electric BYD. However, when ring-fencing the total cost of ownership (pertaining to vehicle purchase, fuel and tyres used) to the solely originally stated 5-year period, the facts show the Polo still trumps the bigger BYD by the narrowest of margins.
BYD Dolphin Surf 5-year TCO: R381 500
VW Polo 5-year TCO: R535 600
BYD Dolphin (Standard) 5-year TCO: R541 875
The difference (Standard vs Polo): R6,275 At face value, the numbers don’t lie. The Polo puts one small takeaway pizza (about R104) each month on your table over the original intended 5-year period. What it doesn’t do is protect you from future fuel shocks like those triggered by the Middle Eastern conflict, whereas had you opted for any of the 2 BYDs, you’d be future-proofed against not only price-volatility anxiety, but even fuel shortages if you are charging using solar power.
VW maintenance plan vs. BYD: Does pre-paying your services save the Polo?
To make this even more of an equitable comparison – and pocket some more peace of mind – Polo owners can extend the standard 3-year/45 000 km service plan with Volkswagen’s EasyDrive programme to 5 years/90 000 km for approximately R15 300. When you consider that out-of-pocket costs for the major 60 000 km and 90 000 km services (including DSG oil, spark plugs and filters) can easily exceed R30 000 at today’s dealership rates, the plan effectively pays for itself, offering a gross saving of over R15 000.
The only caveat is that the decision to extend must be made before the original plan expires. On the other hand, should an owner plan to sell the car shortly thereafter, they benefit from not having had to make the extra capital outlay. The downside is it also condemns the car to never qualifying for a dealer-grade maintenance plan again. (Car companies don’t like taking on the risk of unknown service history gaps.)
| Category | VW Polo 1.0 TSI (with maintenance plan) | BYD Dolphin Standard | BYD Dolphin Surf (Comfort) R339 900 |
| Purchase price | R370 000 | R495 000 | R339 900 |
| Plan upgrade | R15 300 | R0 (standard) | R0 (standard) |
| Energy cost (90 000 km) | R133 416 | R34 875 | R30 600 |
| Tyres and consumables | R8 500 | R12 000 | R11 000 |
| 5-year TCO | R527 216 | R541 875 | R381 500 |
| The new difference | +R14 659 | -R147 400 |
In 2021, the idea of ICE vs EV being a fair fight based on price was a fantasy. In 2026, it is a mathematical reality. While the Polo is technically cheaper over the 5-year measurement period, the gap is now so narrow that the choice is no longer about the bank balance; it’s about the lifestyle and resilience against future fuel price instability.
The slower and more compact Dolphin Surf is the outlier here as it was cheaper than the Polo from the outset and, as a result, its figures are disproportionately skewed in its favour.
However, getting back to the original argument: if you want the flexibility of a lower purchase price and the familiarity of the ICE network, the Polo is your winner.
But if you want to stop doomscrolling the fuel price announcements every first Wednesday of the month, the BYD Dolphin has earned its seat at the table. So, in 2026, the “electric gap” hasn’t just closed; in the face of R23.36 for a litre petrol, it has effectively flatlined.